Avalanche (AVAX) is once again drawing attention as its price hovers near the critical $20 mark, a level that has historically acted as both a psychological and technical pivot for the token.
Despite recent bearish pressure pulling AVAX below key moving averages, emerging accumulation patterns, growing institutional adoption, and new ecosystem developments suggest that a potential rebound could be forming beneath the surface.
Bears tighten grip, but momentum builds quietly
AVAX is trading at $19.74, slipping below the $20 threshold after a 2.4% daily drop.
The token’s market capitalisation stands at $8.43 billion, with a fully diluted valuation of $9.08 billion and a 24-hour trading volume hovering near $482 million.
The market’s intraday range between $19.27 and $20.43 underscores the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers.
The short-term picture remains dominated by bears, with AVAX trading below the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages.
The 100-day and 200-day EMAs, positioned around $20.59 and $22.39, respectively, continue to form a ceiling of resistance.
This setup reinforces the broader downtrend, as momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sit below the neutral line at 45.9.
However, subtle shifts are beginning to appear beneath the surface.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram recently flipped positive, signalling that selling pressure may be losing strength.
This technical shift, though early, is often one of the first signs of a possible rebound phase.
Institutional signals offer a bullish spark
A significant source of optimism comes from growing institutional adoption within the Avalanche ecosystem.
Japan’s leading payments processor, TIS Inc., recently launched a multi-token platform on Avalanche’s AvaCloud, marking a pivotal step toward regulated digital asset infrastructure in Asia.
TIS processes over ¥300 trillion annually and partners with nearly half of Japan’s top credit card issuers.
The move is more than symbolic. By choosing Avalanche, TIS is effectively positioning the network as a foundation for tokenised assets and stablecoin payments in one of the world’s most advanced financial markets.
This integration could channel trillions of yen in B2B payments through Avalanche over time, potentially driving real-world demand for AVAX as a staking and settlement asset.
Meanwhile, Visa’s expanded support for Avalanche-based stablecoins — including USDC and JPYC — adds another layer of validation.
Increased stablecoin activity enhances Avalanche’s role in cross-border payments and decentralised finance (DeFi), strengthening its use case and deepening liquidity within its ecosystem.
Classic 3-spike pattern hints at accumulation
Beyond the headlines, technical traders are closely watching a familiar chart formation unfolding on AVAX’s price structure — the classic “3-spike” accumulation pattern.
This setup, which has appeared in multiple past cycles, often precedes strong upside moves once selling pressure subsides.
With AVAX holding steady near $20 despite broader market weakness, the pattern suggests that smart money could be quietly accumulating.
Historically, similar formations have marked the end of bearish phases, followed by rapid price acceleration as momentum returns.
If the pattern holds, early entrants could be positioning ahead of a potential breakout.
The first key test lies at $21.46, according to CoinLore’s analysis, where reclaiming the 100-day EMA would signal a meaningful shift in sentiment.
A sustained move above this zone could open the path toward $50 — a level that aligns with previous consolidation highs.
More ambitious targets near $100 remain possible if macro conditions and network growth align in the coming months.
Avalanche price outlook: cautious optimism with upside potential
For now, the bias remains cautiously bullish but heavily dependent on follow-through buying.
AVAX must maintain support above $19.20 and reclaim the $21 region with strong volume to confirm a reversal.
On-chain data shows that institutional inflows have yet to fully return, but improving sentiment, positive technical signals, and fundamental growth suggest the worst may be behind.
Avalanche’s long-term story remains intact.
Its subnet architecture, expanding real-world integrations, and rising stablecoin activity continue to position it as one of the more resilient Layer-1 ecosystems.
If current accumulation patterns persist and broader market risk appetite improves, AVAX could be poised for a notable comeback — one that starts quietly but moves fast once momentum takes hold.
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